Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 10.458134 11.999266 13.663400 15.590703 17.757999 20.116455 22.873773
2025-05-18 8.159088 10.231332 12.646523 15.656271 19.292313 23.528152 28.820387
2025-05-25 7.027557 9.330257 12.147865 15.824594 20.468253 26.108238 33.443393
2025-06-01 6.083315 8.506243 11.603966 15.815931 21.348710 28.318414 37.704363
2025-06-08 5.309477 7.773045 11.046869 15.661027 21.931705 30.082332 41.389318
2025-06-15 4.778858 7.293890 10.754788 15.792034 22.847647 32.275530 45.699206
2025-06-22 4.441384 7.038775 10.726889 16.251169 24.198952 35.080647 50.931462
2025-06-29 3.971468 6.534882 10.289927 16.076052 24.621957 36.603426 54.446150
2025-07-06 3.411286 5.832692 9.493905 15.299232 24.102446 36.740328 55.978063
2025-07-13 3.209175 5.667453 9.484557 15.683263 25.290601 39.354752 61.152626
2025-07-20 3.009264 5.483735 9.425944 15.976321 26.342922 41.802984 66.176704
2025-07-27 2.746013 5.167452 9.127629 15.862838 26.749092 43.290002 69.817050
2025-08-03 2.478394 4.822855 8.762978 15.627191 26.964989 44.524022 73.178214
2025-08-10 2.285569 4.591295 8.567254 15.652139 27.593759 46.419243 77.639458
2025-08-17 2.139942 4.429492 8.474001 15.834668 28.476748 48.736616 82.838816
2025-08-24 1.977282 4.219155 8.277264 15.821066 29.024076 50.532372 87.274768
2025-08-31 1.810388 3.983295 8.014132 15.667811 29.316467 51.914491 91.085539
2025-09-07 1.698629 3.844586 7.916068 15.798277 30.096275 54.120352 96.315851
2025-09-14 1.638443 3.804269 7.997542 16.257785 31.471317 57.370399 103.393896
2025-09-21 1.505404 3.599118 7.747597 16.082531 31.700366 58.683025 107.266472
2025-09-28 1.317251 3.256352 7.200947 15.305454 30.789350 57.987677 107.685294
2025-10-05 1.269925 3.217364 7.255910 15.689617 32.030923 61.081046 114.727773
2025-10-12 1.216181 3.158542 7.265361 15.982784 33.113144 63.931355 121.445673